Vietnam’s cautious China policy: Resist at sea, trade on land

Over the past decades, China and Vietnam’s relationship has been shadowed by deep historical wounds, rooted in battles over the South China Sea that still shape maritime tensions today.

Almost three weeks ago, Hanoi protested Beijing’s island reclamation in the Paracel Islands, saying Vietnam has enough evidence and legal basis to affirm its sovereignty over Hoang Sa, about 260 miles from Vietnam’s coast and 186 miles southeast of China.

The latest protest underscores how Vietnam continues to resist China’s expanding footprint in contested waters even as the two neighbors deepen trade and political ties to hedge against growing uncertainty in the region.

Vietnam and China clashed over the Paracel Islands in 1974. The battle saw the People’s Liberation Army Navy prevail over the Republic of Vietnam Navy, enabling China to establish de facto control over the group of 130 small coral islands and reefs.

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At present, China has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said “dredging and landfill activities” by China have been recorded at Antelope Reef.

It said that “if construction proceeds at the pace seen in satellite imagery, Antelope Reef is set to become China’s largest feature in the Paracels and potentially in the entire South China Sea, equaling or even surpassing the size of Mischief Reef in the Spratlys.”

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Lingyang Jiao and Hai Sam to China and Vietnam, respectively, Antelope Reef was the center of the protest of the spokesperson of Hanoi’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pham Thu Hang, last month, who pointed out that the activities are “completely illegal and invalid.”

China, however, said the Paracel Islands, which it calls the Xisha Islands, are an “inherent part of China’s territory” and that “there is no dispute about it,” adding that the activities “are aimed at improving the living conditions of the islands.”

But against this backdrop, Vietnam and China have come closer to hedge against uncertainties.

Swinging to China?

Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, wrote in a column that while Beijing and Hanoi “have long kept each other at arm’s length,” Vietnam “now appears as receptive as China is in welcoming the opportunity to enhance the relationship.”

He said Vietnam has been considered by the United States as one of Southeast Asia’s key “swing states,” given how it has been distant in forging a real alliance with China despite “ideological alignment, regime anxiety, export dependence, and geographical weight.”

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However, “it would be a mistake to view th[e] shift as Hanoi’s newfound affection for Beijing,” Giang wrote, stressing that “what has changed is the mutual desire to hedge against a world running adrift.”

In his column published by the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, he said, “in this environment, pragmatism rules the day.” He cited Vietnamese President To Lam’s state visit to China, saying “the elevation of bilateral ties was crystallized in a statement from Hanoi and Beijing.”

The joint statement stressed the need to deepen the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership and advance the building of a Vietnam-China community with a shared future of strategic significance at a higher level in the new era.

“Vietnam needs an insurance policy against a world increasingly skeptical of American guarantees,” Giang wrote.

“China, for its part, has every reason to lock in a consequential Southeast Asian partner in a region the Trump administration has jolted with erratic tariffs and vanishing summitry,” he added.

Despite this, he said the shifting relationship is expected to rest more on “business and trade than political alignment,” saying Lam “may speak Vietnamese, but he speaks the same vernacular of economic development that Beijing understands well.”

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“The economic package China offered is in line with what it does in numerous developing markets,” Giang wrote. “For Hanoi, Beijing has made an offer it cannot decline,” as China has become increasingly adept at tailoring its package to placate different stakeholders.

‘Pragmatic hedging’

There is an apparent deepening economic relationship between China and Vietnam, but Chester Cabalza, president of the think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, said Hanoi is not lowering its guard.

He said General Secretary and President To Lam “still observes pragmatic hedging as one of the most vocal opponents of (Chinese President) Xi Jinping’s expansionism and militarization in the South China Sea.”

As he framed it in the Philippine context, Vietnam’s stand is “deference with resistance,” far from the Duterte administration’s soft stance on China in the issue of the West Philippine Sea.

“Vietnam has shown experience and a master class diplomacy with China since their conflicts had been celebrated for centuries,” Cabalza said, while the Philippines’ approach is characterized as being in a state of strategic recalibration.

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Cabalza said that recalibration moved from “a period of relative diplomatic passivity to one of assertive transparency,” referring to the Marcos administration’s tell-all strategy regarding issues and incidents in the West Philippine Sea.

Researcher Nguyen Bao Han Tran said Vietnam “should adopt an enhanced non-aligned hedging strategy, grounded in soft balancing and hard balancing approaches, to secure its sovereignty … while preserving independence and avoiding escalation.”

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Tran said in an article published in The Journal of Contemporary Asian Studies that the approach should be prioritized because it allows Vietnam to defend its maritime rights, remain independent, and avoid being drawn into great-power rivalry.

She said Hanoi has to continue its balanced strategy of not aligning with any superpower, while intensifying efforts to build its own defense capacity and pursue multilateral diplomacy.

Needed more than ever

“By combining stronger defense with smart diplomacy, Enhanced Non-Aligned Hedging offers the most realistic and sustainable path for protecting Vietnam’s long-term interests in the South China Sea,” said the research fellow at the NATO Association of Canada.

China’s intensifying footprint in Cambodia has raised regional concern, with expanding military ties — highlighted by the “Golden Dragon” exercises — signaling closer alignment between Beijing and Phnom Penh.

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Joshua Mayfield, a consultant for the NGO Save Cambodia, said that in 2021, then-U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman warned such cooperation could undermine Cambodia’s sovereignty and affect the stability of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as well as ties with the United States.

He said in an article published by the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy that the Ream Naval Base in Sihanoukville is at the center, where China has financed critical improvements since 2019. As a result, the People’s Liberation Army Navy was given long-term access.

The base, Mayfield said, strengthens China’s ability to project power in the Gulf of Thailand and across the South China Sea, raising concerns over shifting regional security dynamics and potential challenges to U.S.-led freedom of navigation operations.

Closer to home, Cabalza said that from regional rivals to strategic partners, Vietnam has continuously studied the Philippines’ success with international legal arbitration.

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“Both neighbors are exercising joint drills, showed how hotline mechanisms can work at contested sea, navigate new techniques and shared interpretation of law enforcement training on maritime security and safety,” he said.

“Together with Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam formed the strategic triangle to strengthen shared intelligence on maritime activities and balance their relationship with major powers,” Cabalza added. /dm

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