Fresh off the Balikatan exercises earlier this month, Japan is considering selling advanced missile systems to the Philippines – a historic first for the archipelagic nations. The announcement marks a major development in Japan-Philippine defense ties, where capacity-building efforts take center stage amid increasingly dangerous provocations that threaten to undermine the rules-based international order.
By no means a stranger to regional security efforts, Japan has been an enduring partner for many in the Indo-Pacific. For some, like the Philippines, diplomatic ties date back well over fifty years. For the region’s geopolitical heart of Southeast Asia, it has risen to become Asean’s most trusted partner, overtaking heavyweights like the US, China, India, and the European Union. But with China-Japan tensions at an all-time high, Tokyo is looking to redefine its engagements with like-minded nations – and that means embracing its role as a military-industrial powerhouse.
Under the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan had been gradually loosening the total ban on arms sales through exceptions under the “Three Principles on Defence Equipment Transfers” outlined in its 2013 National Security Strategy. The proposal to allow the transfer of Type 88 anti-ship missiles to the Armed Forces of the Philippines constitutes the latest revision to these principles, made possible only through a major shift in Japanese legislation that abolishes longstanding restrictions on lethal weapons exports.
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Already a leading recipient of overseas security assistance, Manila was quick to welcome the change in policy. Arms transfers were a crucial element in the discussions between Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., and Japanese Minister of Defense, Shinjirō Koizumi at Camp Aguinaldo. Koizumi himself accompanied Teodoro to observe live-fire exercises in Ilocos Norte, including the first overseas deployment of Japan’s Type 88 missile system.
In a way, Balikatan 2026 is a renewal of the two countries’ commitment to maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). As the largest and most extensive iteration yet, it serves to demonstrate the collective resolve of regional partners in developing their military capabilities, enhancing interoperability, and adopting more coordinated policies in response to Chinese aggression.
Japan’s new export law is part of that response. Between the signing of a Reciprocal Access Agreement with the Philippines in 2024; its debut in Balikatan 2025; and now the opening up of its defense industry, Tokyo is finally embracing the role it had first articulated under the FOIP strategy years ago back in 2016. More than that, today’s Japan is working hard to reconcile the trauma from its complicated martial legacy with the strategic realities of the twenty-first century – and the need to develop its military instrument.
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For the Philippines, the lifting of arms export restrictions aligns directly with its own FOIP vision, enabling it to secure its maritime domain by acquiring top-tier Japanese military equipment. Manila had earlier expressed interest in the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces’ Abukuma-class destroyer escorts, which are set to retire to make way for the new Mogami-class stealth frigates. Though older, these warships are incredibly well-maintained and in much better condition than the hand-me-downs the Philippines is used to. More importantly, they address a critical capability gap for the Philippine Navy: anti-submarine warfare. China already operates the third-largest submarine force in the world, and without submarines of its own, the Philippines is hard-pressed to acquire surface combatants that can counter these underwater threats.
Both the Type 88 and the Abukuma-class destroyers have long supported Japan’s maritime security, and their transfer would serve to significantly enhance Philippine defenses at a crucial period where military modernization and capability development clash struggle in the face of political intrigue and socio-economic turmoil.
Such a dramatic change in policy necessitated a strong governing mandate from Tokyo. Even before its landslide electoral victory earlier this year, the Takaichi government has been clear in the need to reinforce Japan’s defense posture and strengthen its regional partnerships in response to Chinese provocations. Under Koizumi, Japan has doubled defense spending, intensified assistance and engagement with like-minded nations, and brought forward defense spending targets. While a contentious issue on the home front, these were especially positive developments in the eyes of Washington, which, under President Trump, had been pushing allies to increase their defense budgets.
READ: West Philippine Sea: China dumping cyanide in Spratlys, PH says
Tokyo’s newfound assertiveness was also greatly received by other players in the Indo-Pacific, sharing many of the same challenges. Manila was all too familiar with Beijing’s coercive activities. Like Japan, it has come face-to-face with Chinese maritime incursions into its exclusive economic zone as well as consistent radar and communications jamming along the Spratly Islands. Last April, it even accused Chinese fishermen – likely operating under instruction from Beijing – of dumping cyanide to kill local fish populations at Second Thomas Shoal and deny sustenance to the garrison of the BRP Sierra Madre.
Although Japan’s attempts to capacitate its partners have already drawn criticism from Chinese media, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has clarified that the new arms export rules had only come about as response to an “increasingly severe security environment,” where no country alone can guarantee its own peace and security. She framed the policy not as a step toward neo-militarism but as “exclusively defence-oriented,” highlighting the fact that any exports are subject to “rigorous and cautious judgements.”
In any case, what is clear is that Japan recognizes that navigating Indo-Pacific tensions requires coordinated action between like-minded partners – and although it has remained firm and strived for diplomatic solutions – that it would inevitably require a build-up in military capabilities. Takaichi may speak softly, but she carries a big stick. Because in a world where might seemingly makes right, might supported by right is the only way to ensure that Japan, the Philippines, and the broader Indo-Pacific remain free, open, and secure for all.
Vincent Kyle Parada is a Lecturer at the School of Diplomacy and Governance, De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde and Emerging Leaders Fellow at FACTS Asia. He was previously a defense analyst for the Philippine Navy.
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