The South African trade surplus with the United States (US) slumped to $51 million (R836 million) in March from $472 million (R7.741 billion) in February and $644 million (R10.562 billion) in January.
Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that South Africa’s exports to the US only eased to $834 million in March. This was down from $839 million in February and $996 million in January.
The slump in the March trade surplus was mostly due to more than doubling in US exports to South Africa of $783 million from $367 million in February.
The probable cause of this surge was the import of US aircraft as aircraft have a large value measured in millions of dollars. The South African Revenue Service showed that the cumulative value of transport equipment, which includes aircraft, from the US in the first quarter 2026 was R6.3 billion.
The local tourism market is booming so airlines need to invest in new aircraft. In March domestic airport arrivals grew by 9.9% year-on-year. The year ago increase for regional arrivals was 10.8% in March.
South African exports were volatile in 2025
South African exporters knew that Donald Trump would impose tariffs on imports to the US once he became President on 20 January 2025. What they did not know was when and how high the tariffs would be.
Consequently, they decided to ship as many products as they could before the tariffs were imposed. Hence South African exports to the US jumped to $2.253 billion in January from $1.459 billion in December and $1.321 billion in November. November 2024 was the month Trump was elected.
Exports peaked in February at $3.337 billion before easing to a “normal” $1.411 billion in March.
Eventually Trump made good on his promise of increased tariffs. On “Liberation Day” 9 April 2025 he unveiled a chart with 30% tariffs imposed on South African exports to the US.
Straightaway this led to record weakness in the rand. It hit R19.93/US$1 on that day. It then recovered after Trump announced a 90-day pause in implementing the tariffs on 11 April. Significantly, the pause came after a severe down turn in the US stock market.
Exemptions
Due to the ongoing trade war between the US and China, the US exempted certain South African exports from its tariffs.
These were concentrated in so-called ‘strategic minerals’. Markedly they included platinum group metals, gold, manganese, chrome, copper, and coal. To protect US consumers, other exempt products include certain agricultural items such as citrus. It also excluded semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, medical products, and specific wood products.
Vehicle exports most affected
Vehicle exports to North America were the category most affected by the tariffs. Exports fell to only 6 530 units in 2025 from 25 554 units in 2024.
