The Lions are enjoying their best ever United Rugby Championship (URC) campaign and with two rounds to play find themselves on the verge of reaching the competition playoffs for the first time.
The Johannesburg side are flying high at third on the table, but with an incredibly congested log they could still find themselves dropping out of the top eight if they lose their last two pool games and other results go completely against them.
But the Lions have already registered their highest points tally in the URC, with them currently on 53 points, which is ahead of the 50 points they registered in finishing ninth in the 2023-24 season when they just barely missed out on the playoffs on number of games won, after ending level with eighth placed Ospreys.
Most wins
They have also picked up more wins in a season than they have ever previously, now standing at 10, more than the nine they had managed in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons.
They, however, may finish with those 10 wins and 53 points as they face an incredibly tough end to their pool campaign, against Irish giants Leinster and Munster in Ireland.
But with the form that the Lions are in, there is also a chance that they walk away with a number of bonus points, or could even clinch an upset with a first ever away win over one or both of the overseas powerhouses.
All the Lions need to make it into the playoffs for the first time is one win, as that would put them too far ahead of ninth placed Connacht on 44 points.
But if they lose both matches two losing bonus points will also be enough, if even Connacht win both their last two games, at home against fifth placed Munster, and away against struggling 12th placed Edinburgh.
The Lions’ goal before the season started was getting a top eight finish, but now with them third going into the business end, they may be confident enough to go for a top four finish and thus a home quarterfinal.
Leinster chance
Their first tour match, against Leinster in Dublin next weekend will be the perfect one to have a go, as they take on the tournament defending champs who haven’t been at their best this season.
Leinster’s previous worst number of pool losses in a URC season came in 2021-22 and 2023-24 when they lost five games in pool play, while in 2022-23 they lost just once and drew once, and last season they lost just twice, on their way to their first URC (under the new guise of the tournament).
So Leinster have been vulnerable, as was shown over the past weekend when they were edged by Benetton 29-26 in Italy, while they have also suffered away losses against Cardiff, Bulls, Stormers, Munster and Glasgow Warriors.
They have yet to lose at home though, but depending on how this coming weekend’s Champions Cup semifinal against Toulon goes, they may look to rest some players against the Lions, if they make it to the final.
However, even a Leinster ‘B’ team would be incredibly tough, but with the Lions in top form so far this year and on a six match winning streak, they will be confident of pulling off an upset.
The Lions have only lost once this year so far; a heavy home defeat against the Bulls back at the end of January which may have kickstarted their impressive current run, while they have picked up seven wins and two draws across the URC and Challenge Cup.
They won’t be favourites against Leinster or Munster, but they may just have enough belief to go on and upset the punters with their first ever win over either in Ireland.
